Tuesday, 31 January 2012

gold

Gold bulls are "firmly in the box seat, with risk very
much skewed in their favor," says FuturesTechs. Says Comex gold futures for
April delivery will next be looking to challenge $1,767-71/oz, the December
high, and 61.8% retracement of the September-December weakness. In Europe, spot
gold trades up $13.33, or 0.8%, at $1,742.63/oz.

Market Commentary

Ø A stronger dollar overnight saw gold open lower at 1725.25/1726.25 with it dipping to its intraday low of 1723.501724.50 soon after. Quiet range bound trading for the session saw the metal reach an intraday high of 1733/1734 mid morning. Gold ended the session almost unchanged from yesterday’s close at 1731.25/1732.25.

Ø Weaker base metals and crude overnight saw silver open lower at 33.36/33.41 and reaching an intraday low of 33.16/33.21 Silver reversed its decline on a short lived rally in crude to eventuallyreach an intraday high of 33.67/33.72 mid session. Quiet range bound trading for the remainder of the session saw silver close the day at 33.54/33.59.

Technical Commentary:

Ø Spot gold closed slightly lower at 1731/32. RSI has turned downward but is still close to overbought levels at 68.8. Resistance is at 1756, the December 8th high, followed by 1800. Key support sits at 1696, the 61.8% retracement of the November-December downtrend.

Ø Silver retreated slightly, closing at 33.54/59. Resistance sits at 34.00the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend. We have seen support in the low 33.00’s in the past 3 sessions. Resistance is at 34.63, the November 16th high. The Gold-Silver ratio continues to trade sideways, closing at 51.8.

Technical levels for 31^st Jan, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1,717.56	1,73.05
Silver	32.806	34.068

Economic Calendar:

Date	Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Effect & Remarks
31^st Jan	CB Consumer Confidence	US	Pending at 8:30pm	68.2	64.5	If Actual > Forecast = Good for US Currency. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
30^th Jan	Core PCE Price Index m/m	US	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	As Actual > Forecast = Good for US currency. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy has Increased.
30^th Jan	Personal Spending m/m	US	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	As Actual < Forecast = Good for US Currency. Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

Monday, 30 January 2012

Market Commentary

Ø Gold opened a little lower at 1722.25/1723.25. Trading erratically after disappointing U.S. growth data, gold eventually reached an intraday low of 1718/1719. The metal recovered alongside strong gains in the EUR to eventually reach an intraday high of 1734.75/1735.75 late in the session. Gold ended the week at 1732.50/1733.50.

Ø Silver opened lower at 33.58/33.73 with it reaching an intraday low shortly after, of 33.28/33.33, alongside declines in base metals. Recovering in line with gains in crude, silver reached an intraday high of 33.93/33.98 midsession. Sideways trading for the remainder of the day had the metal close the week at 33.77/33.82.

Technical Commentary:

Ø Gold had a very strong finish to the week, closing higher on both the daily and weekly chart at 1732/33, the 4th up week in a row. The next significant hurdle on the weekly chart is the previous top in the 1800 level, from mid November. Closer by, resistance is at 1737, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December downtrend. Key support sits at 1696, the 61.8% retracement of the same downtrend. RSI has approached overbought levels (currently 71.50); however, is confirming the uptrend.

Ø Silver also had its 4th consecutive up-week, closing higher at 33.77/82. Resistance sits at 34.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend. Key support sits at 29.12, the 50% retracement of the rally. On the daily chart, support is at 33.01 and resistance at 34.63. The Gold-Silver ratio closed lower at 51.32.

Technical levels for 30^th Jan, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1,722.09	1,743.32
Silver	33.352	34.107

Economic Calendar:

Date	Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Effect & Remarks
30^th Jan	Core PCE Price Index m/m	USD	Pending at 7:00pm	0.1%	0.1%	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.
30^th Jan	Personal Spending m/m	USD	Pending at 7:00pm	0.2%	0.1%	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.
27^th Jan	Advance GDP q/q	USD	2.8%	3.0%	1.8%	As Actual < Forecast = Not Good for currency. Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy has Decreased.
27^th Jan	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	75.0	74.2	74.0	As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers has Increased.

Disclaimer:

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

gold

Trading remained quiet also during European hours yesterday and the few highlights were sell stops that were hunted in Gold at 1665 or Silver below 32, before going quiet again. Our own Gold ETFs reported an increase in holdings by 1.6 tons or 52'000 ounces. Switzerland got a new LBMA approved refiner on the good delivery list. Précinox SA, who are situated in La Chaux-de-Fonds and have their roots in the field of semi finished products for the watch industry. Options talk on Comex were the April 1800/2000/2200 butterflies that were apparently bought in size. Analyzing the open interest we see an increase of 650'000 ounces in 1800 calls, 550'000 ounces in 2200 calls, but a drop of 520'000 ounces on the 2000 call. The options will expire on 25th March, which are pretty bullish bets that some are putting on. We also looked at Options expiry tomorrow, where the largest nearer strikes are the 1650 with 910'000 ounces of total open interest and the 1700 strike with 850'000 ounces. The largest open interest is on the 1600 strike, with 1.1 Mio. ounces. Tonight will see the FOMC rate decision announced and Bernanke to speak, which might keep markets to trade on the sideline and wait for any hint on Quantitative Easing.

mcx

Above 54755 expect 56200,56765

below 54755 expect 53450,52500

(NTRADAY: Moderate positive above 54755).

Action1: BUY (55415 / 55185) with stop (54755) for target = 56200, 56765

CURRENT RATE :

MCX : 55650

SPOT : 32.29

INR : 50.04

mcx gold

Above 27245 expect 27550,27710

Below 27245 expect 27025,26860

(INTRADAY: Moderate positive above 27245)

Action1: BUY @ (27340) with stop (27245) for tgt=27550,27710

CURRENT RATE:

MCX : 27380
SPOT : 1668.90
INR : 50.03

SILVER‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ 32.14 / 32.00 , Stop at 31.73 with 32.63 & 32.98 as next targets.

The downside breakout of 31.73 will call for 30.92 & 30.33.

GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ 1666, Stop at 1660 with 1689 & 1695 as next target.

The downside breakout of 1660 will open the way to 1646 & 1636

Market Commentary

Ø Gold slipped overnight, opening at 1664.50/1665.50, before trading down to an intraday low of 1661.00/1662.00. Overall a quiet session with the metal trading inline with equities while the market focused on Greek debt negotiations. The metal traded to an intraday high of 1669.75/1670.75 prior to concluding the day at 1664.00/1665.00.

Ø Silver eased overnight, commencing at 32.12/32.17, before retreating towards 32.00. The metal recovered inline with equities, trading to an intraday high of 32.32/32.37 until selling interest at the end of the session took us to a low of 31.90/31.95 and a close of 31.98/32.03.

Technical Commentary:

Ø After a trading range similar to yesterdays, Gold closed slightly lower at 1665. This leaves the short-term technical outlook neutral given the weaker close. Support sits at the 200-day moving average at 1644. Resistance sits at 1700, where we saw good support in November to early December. On the weekly chart, gold is still respecting the uptrend off the October 2008 low, with key support at 1550.

Ø Silver formed a doji in the candlestick charts today, closing close to unchanged at 32.03. This is a sign of indecision, and may signal a correction in the very near-term. Key support sits at 29.12, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rallies, and resistance at 34.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The Gold-Silver ratio closed higher at 52.02.

Technical levels for 25^th Jan, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1,657.24	1,679.70
Silver	31.657	32.675

Economic Calendar:

Date	Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Effect & Remarks
25^th Jan	Pending Home Sales m/m	USD	Pending at 8:30pm	-0.6%	7.3%	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.
24^th Jan	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	48.5	49.2	48.9	As Actual < Forecast = Not Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry has Decreased.
24^th Jan	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	54.5	52.6	52.4	As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry has Increased.