PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

April Gold closed up 6.6 at 1581.5. This was 15.1 up from the low and 2.8 off the high.

The gold market waffled around both sides of unchanged today suggesting that the market continues to lack a definitive fundamental focus. Clearly gold continues to be negatively impacted by positive economic views and for some gold bulls that is discouraging. For the time being gold seems to be fearful of a decent US payroll report on Friday morning but at some point one might expect long liquidation off flight to quality to run its course. However, the Dollar remains very strong at the expense of the Euro and most other currencies and that might be giving some gold bears an added incentive to press prices downward.

May silver forged a rather wide trading range today but one might suggest that silver outperformed the gold market at times on the upside track. At times today silver seemed to be tracking with platinum and less with gold but in the end the industrial metals track was less than impressive today. While gold was at times undermined by positive US scheduled data flows and higher equities, the silver market seemed to become less concerned about that type of thinking as the session progressed. However, it could still be a little premature to think that silver is poised to benefit from positive US economic views.

Technical Outlook

COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/07/2013:The next upside objective is 2946.0. The next area of resistance is around 2922.0 and 2948.0, while 1st support hits today at 2872.0 and below there at 2834.0.

COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/07/2013: The next downside target is 1560.8. The next area of resistance is around 1589.0 and 1595.3, while 1st support hits today at 1572.4 and below there at 1560.8.

Market Commentary

Ø The gold market tried to track with physical commodities on the upside today but the trade was unable to sustain that track throughout the trading session. Sharp gains in US equities, favorable US scheduled data flows and a risk-on vibe failed to provide a lift to gold and that suggests the gold trade is still focused on safe haven or flight to quality issues. The bull camp has to be discouraged as the failure to see gold sustain early gains today has to be seen as a negative fundamental signal, especially since the reversal today made the charts in gold look a little suspect.

Ø The silver market showed somewhat impressive initial gains today but in the afternoon trade the May contract settled back to as much as 41 cents an ounce below the initial highs. For the bull camp the action today is really troublesome as that clearly suggests silver isn't currently in a position to benefit from classic physical commodity market developments. Given the potential deterioration in global economic conditions into the US sequester, the rise in uncertainty off the Italian election and the recent concern on the Chinese real estate bubble the flight to quality crowd seemed to have an edge but prices failed to respond. Now that economic conditions have improved and silver has also weakened one has to wonder what condition if any will provide support to silver prices.

Technical levels for 6^th Mar, 2013:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1572.10	1584.67
Silver	28.503	29.003

Intraday Levels and view for Gold:

Sell positions @ $1583 with 1^st target @1571 & 2^nd target @1565 stop at 1587 the upside breakout of 1587 will open the way to 1599 & 1603.

Intraday Levels and view for Silver:

Sell positions @ $28.95 with 1^st target @ 28.4 & 2^nd target @ 28.2 stop at 29.05 the upside penetration of 29.05 will call for a rebound towards 29.45 & 29.65.

Economic Calendar

Date		Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Effect & Remarks
6th Mar	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change		US	Pending at 6:45pm	172K	192K	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government
5th Mar	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		US	56.0	55.0	55.2	As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry has increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

Daily Market Alert

Market Commentary

Ø Gold opened lower today after selling off a bit overnight as investors seem to be moving their money out of gold in favour of other asset classes. The metal opened at 1690.25/1691.25, quickly hitting its low of 1690.00/1691.00 to then start on a relatively steep ascent to reach a high of 1699.00/1700.00. Gold then traded in narrow bands for the rest of the day, despite surging equities and a weak dollar suggesting investor indecision and a breakdown in correlations.

Ø Silver too remains range bound ahead of the holiday season and looming fiscal cliff issue opening virtually unchanged from Friday’s close at 32.16/32.21, moving up rapidly to its daily high of 32.36/32.41 and then gradually deteriorating. The commodity hit a low of 32.00/32.05 just after 10am to close at 32.20/32.25.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed lower today at 1696. The last signal in MACD remains a sell and the downtrend does not yet show signs of abating. The ADX (from the Directional Movement Index) is at 22 indicating the trend remains strong. The downward-sloping neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern would come in around 1673, and the long term uptrend is not far away at 1658. A break of the neckline would target the low 1600’s which would breach the uptrend support. Resistance is at 1723, the high from December 12th.

Ø Silver closed lower at 32.20. The last MACD signal was also a sell but the trend is much weaker than that for gold, with the ADX below 20 (currently at 15.96). A small head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at 32.78 targets $2 lower. This would take us back to November lows in the $30.68 area, which could be fulfilled without breaching the long-term uptrend which comes in around 28.59. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 52.72. Resistance is at 54.59, the November high, and support is at 50.26, the November low.

Technical levels for 18^th Dec, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1690.50	1705.40
Silver	31.987	32.688

Economic Calendar:

Date		Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast		Previous	Effect & Remarks
18th Dec	Current Account		US	Pending at 7:00pm	-105B	-117B		If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter
17th Dec	Empire State Manufacturing Index		US	-8.1	-0.7	-5.2		As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state has Decreased.
17th Dec	TIC Long-Term Purchases		US	1.3B	24.3B	3.3B		As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period has Decreased.
17th Dec	FOMC Member Lacker Speaks/Stein Speaks		US	NA	Lacker: Economic Outlook, December 2012 Stein: I will focus my remarks on one important aspect of this issue--namely, the growing use of wholesale dollar funding by global financial institutions.

Disclaimer: -

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

MCX SILVERM November contract declines 1%

SILVERM prices on MCX were trading lower. At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM November contract was trading at Rs 63850.00 down Rs 638.00, or 0.99%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 64385.00 and an intraday low of Rs 63850.00. So far 38053 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved down Rs 110.00, or 0.17% in the November series so far.

At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM February contract was trading at Rs 65597.00 down Rs 632.00, or 0.95%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 66353.00 and an intraday low of Rs 65594.00. So far 2014 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved up Rs 10107.00, or 18.21% in the February series so far.

At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM April contract was trading at Rs 67101.00 down Rs 599.00, or 0.88%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 67488.00 and an intraday low of Rs 67100.00. So far 117 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved up Rs 3022.00, or 4.72% in the April series so far.

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on spot Gold. According to the research firm, one can buy spot gold on dips to USD 1748 with stoploss of USD 1724 for a target of USD 1778.

Spot gold held firm near $1770 an ounce, buoyed by a strong dollar following actions taken by various central banks to urge growth in their economies. In an unexpected move, Bank of Japan increased the size of their asset prices to tackle slowing down of domestic economy, which supported the dollar. However, investors are anticipating more monetary actions from China in the face of recent bleak economic releases. Manufacturing activity in China contracted in September, a straight 11th month fall but slightly at a milder pace than August. The recent economic developments pushed the dollar index higher from its multi-month lows while the Euro eased down. The US Fed’s third round of quantitative easing and the bond buying plan by European Central Bank raised global inflation outlook. Concerns over inflation probably support bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. Physical demand from India is expected to pick up in the coming sessions amid the key festive Diwali and marriage season. At the same time, investment demand for gold has been strong for the last week with the ETF holdings lifting to its all time highs.  The corrective sell off  witnessed in the previous session has failed to clear the strong support of $1748. As long as prices stay above, the same could signal chances of continuation of the broad bullish momentum. On a broad basis $1800-1820 regions look to be possible but evolving such a rally aiming the target is expected to face immediate resistance again at $1780. Unexpected fall below $1748 could test $1732 /1710 levels but major falls are not anticipated unless on a close below $1680 with adequate volume. Anyhow, for the day, prices are expected to take an initial dips probably near $1752 followed by a consolidation and drift higher. Volumes seem strengthening while the oscillators are still placed well above the zero line. An overbought condition in RSI and Bollinger Bands are supportive for weak sentiments in a very short term.
Trading strategies for spot gold:
Buy on dips to USD 1748, target USD 1778, SL USD 1724
Buy on dips to USD 1720, target USD 1742, SL below USD 1700.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup:Gold Rallies Sharply on Weaker-than-Expected U.S. Jobs Report Friday September 07, 2012 8:48 AM

Comex gold futures prices have rallied sharply and hit a fresh six-month high in the immediate aftermath of a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report. Before the report’s release gold prices were posting moderate losses on a corrective, profit-taking pullback. December gold last traded up $19.40 at $1,725.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $23.40 an ounce at $1,725.25.  December Comex silver last traded up $0.716 at $33.41 an ounce.

The highly anticipated U.S. employment report for August came in weaker than expected on the non-farm jobs front, posting a rise of 96,000. Forecasts for the key non-farm payrolls figure were at up around 125,000. The overall unemployment rate did decline by 0.2% in August. The stronger ADP jobs figure released on Thursday had many thinking Friday jobs report would be stronger than the consensus forecast. Friday’s weak jobs report likely opens the door wide for a fresh U.S. monetary stimulus announcement by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meeting in two weeks. Such would be bullish for the precious metals markets and other commodity markets, and that’s why gold and silver prices popped sharply higher following the jobs report.

In overnight news, European stock markets were firmer in the wake of the European Central Bank’s announcement of a fresh bond-buying plan Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond yields were down overnight, which suggests the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing. There was an upbeat economic report coming out of Germany overnight, as industrial output rose more than expected. Also, the Chinese government has announced a major infrastructure investment plan, in order to help reinvigorate its economy. Asian stock markets rallied on the China news and on the ECB stimulus plan.--Jim

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading Friday, falling farther on the weak jobs report, and hit a fresh four-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Meantime, crude oil prices are firmer Friday morning. Oil bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. These two key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the precious metals early Friday.

Other than the jobs report, there is no other major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,696.00 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,708.50.

NOTE: I am now providing you with unique analytical/technical charts on the 10 major world FOREX currency pairs. Holders of precious metals or other major tradable (fungible) assets worldwide need to monitor the foreign exchange rate of the currency in which their asset is held. Also, the precious metals market prices are impacted on a day-to-day basis by currency movements. If you have a better handle on what the major currencies are doing (or where they may be headed), then you will have more market knowledge and will likely become a more profitable investor or trader.—Jim

Technically, December gold futures prices Friday morning and hit a fresh six-month high and were scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart—whereby the high is higher and low is lower than the previous session’s trading range, with a higher last trade.
Gold prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August high low of $1,679.30. First resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,691.30.

December silver futures prices Friday hit another fresh five-month high and were also scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August high of $31.315. First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at $34.00. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at $32.47.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading,then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com