Daily Market Alert

Market Commentary

Ø Gold opened lower today after selling off a bit overnight as investors seem to be moving their money out of gold in favour of other asset classes. The metal opened at 1690.25/1691.25, quickly hitting its low of 1690.00/1691.00 to then start on a relatively steep ascent to reach a high of 1699.00/1700.00. Gold then traded in narrow bands for the rest of the day, despite surging equities and a weak dollar suggesting investor indecision and a breakdown in correlations.

Ø Silver too remains range bound ahead of the holiday season and looming fiscal cliff issue opening virtually unchanged from Friday’s close at 32.16/32.21, moving up rapidly to its daily high of 32.36/32.41 and then gradually deteriorating. The commodity hit a low of 32.00/32.05 just after 10am to close at 32.20/32.25.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed lower today at 1696. The last signal in MACD remains a sell and the downtrend does not yet show signs of abating. The ADX (from the Directional Movement Index) is at 22 indicating the trend remains strong. The downward-sloping neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern would come in around 1673, and the long term uptrend is not far away at 1658. A break of the neckline would target the low 1600’s which would breach the uptrend support. Resistance is at 1723, the high from December 12th.

Ø Silver closed lower at 32.20. The last MACD signal was also a sell but the trend is much weaker than that for gold, with the ADX below 20 (currently at 15.96). A small head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at 32.78 targets $2 lower. This would take us back to November lows in the $30.68 area, which could be fulfilled without breaching the long-term uptrend which comes in around 28.59. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 52.72. Resistance is at 54.59, the November high, and support is at 50.26, the November low.

Technical levels for 18^th Dec, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1690.50	1705.40
Silver	31.987	32.688

Economic Calendar:

Date		Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast		Previous	Effect & Remarks
18th Dec	Current Account		US	Pending at 7:00pm	-105B	-117B		If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter
17th Dec	Empire State Manufacturing Index		US	-8.1	-0.7	-5.2		As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state has Decreased.
17th Dec	TIC Long-Term Purchases		US	1.3B	24.3B	3.3B		As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period has Decreased.
17th Dec	FOMC Member Lacker Speaks/Stein Speaks		US	NA	Lacker: Economic Outlook, December 2012 Stein: I will focus my remarks on one important aspect of this issue--namely, the growing use of wholesale dollar funding by global financial institutions.

Disclaimer: -

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

MCX SILVERM November contract declines 1%

SILVERM prices on MCX were trading lower. At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM November contract was trading at Rs 63850.00 down Rs 638.00, or 0.99%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 64385.00 and an intraday low of Rs 63850.00. So far 38053 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved down Rs 110.00, or 0.17% in the November series so far.

At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM February contract was trading at Rs 65597.00 down Rs 632.00, or 0.95%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 66353.00 and an intraday low of Rs 65594.00. So far 2014 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved up Rs 10107.00, or 18.21% in the February series so far.

At 15:22 hrs MCX SILVERM April contract was trading at Rs 67101.00 down Rs 599.00, or 0.88%. The SILVERM rate touched an intraday high of Rs 67488.00 and an intraday low of Rs 67100.00. So far 117 contracts have been traded. SILVERM prices have moved up Rs 3022.00, or 4.72% in the April series so far.

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on spot Gold. According to the research firm, one can buy spot gold on dips to USD 1748 with stoploss of USD 1724 for a target of USD 1778.

Spot gold held firm near $1770 an ounce, buoyed by a strong dollar following actions taken by various central banks to urge growth in their economies. In an unexpected move, Bank of Japan increased the size of their asset prices to tackle slowing down of domestic economy, which supported the dollar. However, investors are anticipating more monetary actions from China in the face of recent bleak economic releases. Manufacturing activity in China contracted in September, a straight 11th month fall but slightly at a milder pace than August. The recent economic developments pushed the dollar index higher from its multi-month lows while the Euro eased down. The US Fed’s third round of quantitative easing and the bond buying plan by European Central Bank raised global inflation outlook. Concerns over inflation probably support bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. Physical demand from India is expected to pick up in the coming sessions amid the key festive Diwali and marriage season. At the same time, investment demand for gold has been strong for the last week with the ETF holdings lifting to its all time highs.  The corrective sell off  witnessed in the previous session has failed to clear the strong support of $1748. As long as prices stay above, the same could signal chances of continuation of the broad bullish momentum. On a broad basis $1800-1820 regions look to be possible but evolving such a rally aiming the target is expected to face immediate resistance again at $1780. Unexpected fall below $1748 could test $1732 /1710 levels but major falls are not anticipated unless on a close below $1680 with adequate volume. Anyhow, for the day, prices are expected to take an initial dips probably near $1752 followed by a consolidation and drift higher. Volumes seem strengthening while the oscillators are still placed well above the zero line. An overbought condition in RSI and Bollinger Bands are supportive for weak sentiments in a very short term.
Trading strategies for spot gold:
Buy on dips to USD 1748, target USD 1778, SL USD 1724
Buy on dips to USD 1720, target USD 1742, SL below USD 1700.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup:Gold Rallies Sharply on Weaker-than-Expected U.S. Jobs Report Friday September 07, 2012 8:48 AM

Comex gold futures prices have rallied sharply and hit a fresh six-month high in the immediate aftermath of a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report. Before the report’s release gold prices were posting moderate losses on a corrective, profit-taking pullback. December gold last traded up $19.40 at $1,725.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $23.40 an ounce at $1,725.25.  December Comex silver last traded up $0.716 at $33.41 an ounce.

The highly anticipated U.S. employment report for August came in weaker than expected on the non-farm jobs front, posting a rise of 96,000. Forecasts for the key non-farm payrolls figure were at up around 125,000. The overall unemployment rate did decline by 0.2% in August. The stronger ADP jobs figure released on Thursday had many thinking Friday jobs report would be stronger than the consensus forecast. Friday’s weak jobs report likely opens the door wide for a fresh U.S. monetary stimulus announcement by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meeting in two weeks. Such would be bullish for the precious metals markets and other commodity markets, and that’s why gold and silver prices popped sharply higher following the jobs report.

In overnight news, European stock markets were firmer in the wake of the European Central Bank’s announcement of a fresh bond-buying plan Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond yields were down overnight, which suggests the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing. There was an upbeat economic report coming out of Germany overnight, as industrial output rose more than expected. Also, the Chinese government has announced a major infrastructure investment plan, in order to help reinvigorate its economy. Asian stock markets rallied on the China news and on the ECB stimulus plan.--Jim

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading Friday, falling farther on the weak jobs report, and hit a fresh four-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Meantime, crude oil prices are firmer Friday morning. Oil bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. These two key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the precious metals early Friday.

Other than the jobs report, there is no other major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,696.00 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,708.50.

NOTE: I am now providing you with unique analytical/technical charts on the 10 major world FOREX currency pairs. Holders of precious metals or other major tradable (fungible) assets worldwide need to monitor the foreign exchange rate of the currency in which their asset is held. Also, the precious metals market prices are impacted on a day-to-day basis by currency movements. If you have a better handle on what the major currencies are doing (or where they may be headed), then you will have more market knowledge and will likely become a more profitable investor or trader.—Jim

Technically, December gold futures prices Friday morning and hit a fresh six-month high and were scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart—whereby the high is higher and low is lower than the previous session’s trading range, with a higher last trade.
Gold prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August high low of $1,679.30. First resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,691.30.

December silver futures prices Friday hit another fresh five-month high and were also scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls are in firm near-term technical command. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August high of $31.315. First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at $34.00. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at $32.47.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading,then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

Market Commentary

Ø With New York closed there wasn’t much going on in precious metals yesterday

Ø Late buying continued into Asia and Gold fell only short of the 1700 mark on the December future.

Ø The Euro was strong following reports from ECB President Draghi, who told the EU Parliament that ECB purchases of sovereign bonds with up to 3-year maturities would not be considered to be state aid.

Ø Silver seems also unstoppable and next major resistance should be expected between 33.00 and 33.12.

Technical levels for 4^th Sep, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1675,1666,1658	1700,1705,1711
Silver	31.25,30.50,30.30	32.30,32.80,33.00

Economic Calendar:

Date		Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous		Effect & Remarks
4th Sep	ISM Manufacturing PMI		US	Pending at 7:30pm	50.0		49.8	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
3rd Sep	ECB President Draghi Speaks		EU	NA	NA		NA	Draghi Told EU Parliament ECB Can Buy 3yr Bonds. European Union lawmakers risked a breach of confidence with the European Central Bank after revealing details from a confidential briefing with ECB President Mario Draghi.

Buy Gold on dips to USD 1643; SL below USD 1628: Geojit

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its trading strategies onGold for the day. According to the research firm, one can buy Gold on dips to USD 1643 for targets of USD 1662/1680 with a stoploss below USD 1628.
Spot gold almost paused overnight in lackluster trades as investors stayed away from taking fresh positions ahead of the key Jackson Hole symposium later the session. More economic stimulate measures are broadly expected in the meeting that strengthen hopes of another round of quantitative easing from US. Fresh economic stimulus from central banks probably lifts inflation outlook and could benefit bullion owing to its inflation hedge appeal. Moves in bullion continue to look towards currencies for direction but the Dollar and the Euro was almost steady as investors worried speculating in currencies ahead the meeting. Chinese Premier Web Jiabao’s positive comment to support the Euro zone and the successful Italian bond auction has put a lid over the worsening Euro zone crisis. However, economic data from US providing signals of a bleak economic outlook with the jobless data that showed more application for unemployment benefit than previously expected in the last week. US customer spending too mounted to a three month high last month. Physical activities on gold from Asian countries remain steady and the holdings of world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund stay unchanged.
In spite of a breakout above $1640 supplementary moves were inadequate to strengthen the broad positive bias. Auxiliary moves were failed to clear the consolidation resistance of $1680 and slightly pushed down. Looking ahead the consolidation phase is likely to carry on without breaking the immediate support of $1648. Enduring candlestick formation suggests chances of fresh upside providing the 200 day moving average support of $1641 held the downside. Falls below $1640 with volume is required to trigger fresh sell off till $1617/1600 even such moves are least expected in a short run. Though, reversal of the current bullish outlook is expected only a break below $1606 with volume. Currently gold and the Euro are highly correlated with the correlation placed above 0.90. Volumes almost silent and RSI paced at neutral zone.
Trading strategies

Key levels for the day: Upside: 1680 followed by 1696/ 1720. Short term 1762

Downside immediate: 1642/1617/1600-1596 regions and then 1582.
Buy on dips to 1643 target 1662/1680 SL below 1628.
Buy above 1682 target 1720 SL below 1660. Buy on dips to 1617 target 1643 SL below 1605.
Buy on dips to 1588 target 1612 SL below 1580. Sell if unable to clear 1682 target 1632 SL above 1700.
Sell below 1632 target 1606 SL above 1645. Sell below 1578 target 1562 SL above 1586.
Prices are likely to move higher after taking an initial dip.
MCX Oct: Intraday Levels are: Resistance at 30940/31000/31180 then 31600. Supports: 30730/30350/30120
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Market Commentary

Ø Gold opened lower at 1604.25/1605.25, pushed down by a stronger dollar overnight. We appear to be stuck in the summer doldrums as the metal is experiencing range bound trading in a low volume market as investors wait upon news to give direction. Gold reached an intraday low of 1603.50/1604.50 shortly after the open and gained to an intraday high of 1616.50/1617.50 midmorning. Gold remained near the high end of its range for the remainder of the day as equities made small gains. The metal ended the day at 1613/1614.

Ø Depressed prices in base metals and crude saw silver open lower at 27.78/27.83 and reached its intraday low of 27.74/27.79 quickly after. Following a renewal in crude, silver reached an intraday high of 28.24/28.29 midsession. Light profit taking took the metal to its close at 28.10/28.15 in quiet trading.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed nearly unchanged today at 1613, the 3rd consecutive day of very lackluster trading. The range of 1585 to 1629 continues to hold, and the ADX, a measure of trend, is very low at 11.70.

Ø Silver closed nearly unchanged at 28.10. Like gold, silver is showing no trend momentum with ADX well below 20 (currently at 13). We continue to watch the 28.40-level on the upside and 27 on the downside. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading slightly higher at 57.46 but remains vulnerable to the downside, with support at 57.00.

Technical levels for 9^th Aug, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1605.55	1619.14
Silver	27.714	28.317

Economic Calendar:

Date		Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous		Effect & Remarks
9th Aug	Trade Balance		US	Pending at 6:00pm	-47.4B		-48.7B	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
9th Aug	Unemployment Claims		US	Pending at 6:00pm	371K		365K	If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
8th Aug	Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q		US	1.7%	0.5%		1.3%	As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry has Increased.
8th Aug	Crude Oil Inventories		US	-3.7M	-0.6M		-6.5M	As Actual < Forecast = No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications. Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

Disclaimer: -

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.