Thursday, 9 August 2012

Market Commentary



Ø
Gold opened lower at 1604.25/1605.25, pushed down by a stronger dollar overnight. We appear to be stuck in the summer doldrums as the metal is experiencing range bound trading in a low volume market as investors wait upon news to give direction. Gold reached an intraday low of 1603.50/1604.50 shortly after the open and gained to an intraday high of 1616.50/1617.50 midmorning. Gold remained near the high end of its range for the remainder of the day as equities made small gains. The metal ended the day at 1613/1614.
Ø Depressed prices in base metals and crude saw silver open lower at 27.78/27.83 and reached its intraday low of 27.74/27.79 quickly after. Following a renewal in crude, silver reached an intraday high of 28.24/28.29 midsession. Light profit taking took the metal to its close at 28.10/28.15 in quiet trading.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold closed nearly unchanged today at 1613, the 3rd consecutive day of very lackluster trading. The range of 1585 to 1629 continues to hold, and the ADX, a measure of trend, is very low at 11.70.
Ø Silver closed nearly unchanged at 28.10. Like gold, silver is showing no trend momentum with ADX well below 20 (currently at 13). We continue to watch the 28.40-level on the upside and 27 on the downside. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading slightly higher at 57.46 but remains vulnerable to the downside, with support at 57.00.
Technical levels for 9th Aug, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1605.55
1619.14
Silver
27.714
28.317
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
9th Aug
Trade Balance
US
Pending at 6:00pm
-47.4B
-48.7B
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
9th Aug
Unemployment Claims
US
Pending at 6:00pm
371K
365K
If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
8th Aug
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
US
1.7%
0.5%
1.3%
As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry has Increased.
8th Aug
Crude Oil Inventories
US
-3.7M
-0.6M
-6.5M
As Actual < Forecast = No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications. Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
Disclaimer: -
This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

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