Friday, 13 January 2012

Market Commentary

Ø Investor optimism, albeit cautious, over good Spanish and Italian bond auctions saw gains in the risk trade overnight. Gold opened higher, alongside other assets, at 1654.25/1655.25. Rising alongside gains in the EUR, gold eventually reached an intraday high of 1661.50/1662.50 mid morning. Profit taking as equities declined took the metal to its intraday low of 1645.50/1646.50 just before closing the session at 1647/1648.
Ø Stronger crude and base metals overnight saw silver open higher at 30.42/30.47. Tracking commodities, silver reached an intraday high of 30.67/30.72 early morning. Profit taking alongside gold took silver to it s intraday low of 30.09/30.14 mid day. Silver closed the day at 30.14/30.19.
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold is closing higher today at 1647. This marks the second day in a row the metal has closed above the 200 day moving average. Gold tried toward critical 1667 but fell short. We feel that the market is once again comfortable with Gold but will liquidate on a break of 1605. We are neutral at current levels.
Ø Silver is firmer today at current 30.13. The metal made a move back to November low 30.71 but was rejected on the first attempt. We see the 30.71 and 30.93 offering strong resistance. The Gold Silver ratio is closing slightly lowers today at 54.65. The ratio remains in its well defined 54 to 57 range. Only a break of either side argues for a bigger directional move.
Technical levels for 13th Jan, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1635.93
1659.11
Silver
29.718
30.491
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
13th Jan
Trade Balance
USD
Pending at 7:00pm
-44.8
-43.5
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
13th Jan
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD
Pending at 8:25pm
71.2
69.9
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
12th Jan
Core Retail Sales m/m
USD
-0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
As Actual < Forecast = Not Good for currency. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles has Decreased.
12th Jan
Retail Sales m/m
USD
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
As Actual < Forecast = Not Good for currency. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level has Decreased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

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