Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Stronger speculation of China easing monetary policy in the near future had commodities higher overnight. Gold opened at 1663.25/1664.25 quickly reaching its intraday high of 1665.25/1666.25 shortly after. Range bound for most of the session, profit taking mid day, as equities and the EUR slipped, took the metal to its intraday low of 1652.75/1653.75. Sideways trading for the remainder of the session had gold end the day at 1654.75/1655.75.
Ø Silver opened higher at 30.44/30.49 also quickly reaching its intraday high of 30.55/30.60 soon after. Profit taking with the mid day slippage in equities as well as base metals took silver to its intraday low of 29.96/30.01. Silver quietly gained a little to end the day at 30.15/30.20
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold is working on its third up week at current price 1654. The metal faces a critical resistance at 1667. This level was the mid November low and represents our first impulsive wave lower off of 1803. Our view is that while 1667 holds then big picture risk remains bearish. A break of 1667 nulls the bearish Elliot Wave and puts us firmly in the neutral camp. We believe long liquidation now only any move below 1605.
Ø Silver is unchanged on the day at 30.02. The metal also tested toward key Elliot Wave level at 30.70 (also Nov low and represents wave 1 of bearish wave series). While 30.70 holds we believe the medium term risk for Silver is for another move lower to 26.10. The Gold Silver ratio continues to consolidate above 54.35. While this holds we feel the technical price risk is for a higher Gold Silver ratio and weaker Gold and Silver metals prices.
Technical levels for 18th Jan, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,640.25
1,668.17
Silver
29.683
30.315
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
18th Jan
PPI m/m
USD
Pending at 7:00pm
0.1%
0.3%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.
18th Jan
TIC Long-Term Purchases
USD
Pending at 7:30pm
27.3
4.8
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

No comments:

Post a Comment