Ø
Stronger
speculation of China easing monetary policy in the near future had commodities
higher overnight. Gold opened at 1663.25/1664.25 quickly reaching its intraday
high of 1665.25/1666.25 shortly after. Range bound for most of the session,
profit taking mid day, as equities and the EUR slipped, took the metal to its
intraday low of 1652.75/1653.75. Sideways trading for the remainder of the
session had gold end the day at 1654.75/1655.75.
Ø
Silver opened higher at 30.44/30.49 also
quickly reaching its intraday high of 30.55/30.60 soon after. Profit taking with
the mid day slippage in equities as well as base metals took silver to its
intraday low of 29.96/30.01. Silver quietly gained a little to end the day at
30.15/30.20
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold is working on its third up
week at current price 1654. The metal faces a critical resistance at 1667. This
level was the mid November low and represents our first impulsive wave lower off
of 1803. Our view is that while 1667 holds then big picture risk remains
bearish. A break of 1667 nulls the bearish Elliot Wave and puts us firmly in the
neutral camp. We believe long liquidation now only any move below
1605.
Ø Silver is unchanged on the day at
30.02. The metal also tested toward key Elliot Wave level at 30.70 (also Nov low
and represents wave 1 of bearish wave series). While 30.70 holds we believe the
medium term risk for Silver is for another move lower to 26.10. The Gold Silver
ratio continues to consolidate above 54.35. While this holds we feel the
technical price risk is for a higher Gold Silver ratio and weaker Gold and
Silver metals prices.
Technical levels for 18th Jan,
2012:
Metal
|
Support
($/oz)
|
Resistance
($/oz)
|
Gold
|
1,640.25
|
1,668.17
|
Silver
|
29.683
|
30.315
|
Economic
Calendar:
Date
|
Economic
Indicator
|
Country
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Effect
& Remarks
|
18th
Jan
|
PPI
m/m
|
USD
|
Pending at 7:00pm
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
|
If Actual >
Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the price of finished goods and services
sold by producers.
|
18th
Jan
|
TIC
Long-Term Purchases
|
USD
|
Pending at
7:30pm
|
27.3
|
4.8
|
If Actual >
Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between foreign long-term
securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by
foreigners during the reported period.
|
Disclaimer:
This
report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as
investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi
Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of
the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based
on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the
information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for
the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and
any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In
no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express
or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader
or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner
whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information
provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is
obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this
report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible
where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort
of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The
reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as
investment advices.
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