OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS:

Equity markets in Southeast Asia were weaker overnight but on the week they managed to post minor gains. Indian stocks were higher while European stocks this morning were showing a positive track off hopes of something positive from US payroll figures. In early action, US equity markets were simply waffling around both sides of unchanged early in the Friday US trading session. The US Dollar has started out weaker against the euro and it was also weak versus the rest of the currencies. Overnight the markets saw generally disappointing Euro zone economic readings, with a record high jobless figure potentially rekindling concerns of further Euro zone problems ahead. In looking ahead, the markets probably see the US non farm payroll report as the key event of the session today, with expectations calling for a number good enough to foster further US recovery talk. However, it is also clear that many markets are already looking ahead to European and US debt supply flows next week.
While February gold managed another new high for the move overnight, some traders might be holding back from fresh positions until after the US payroll readings are known. Some bulls think gold needs a very strong number just to keep the fear of slowing and deflation in check from the Euro zone, while others think gold is destined to shift its focus more exclusively toward the oil market and the Iranian sanctions situation. In retrospect, the gold bulls are probably heartened by a series of gold price predictions this week, which generally targeting gold to rise back above the $1,800 level. At least to start, it would appear that the Greenback was showing some weakness, but gold recently has seen its correlation with currencies and equities dissipate somewhat. From a technical perspective, this week's gains were made on slightly expanded volume, but open interest was virtually unchanged. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.494 million ounces up 31,471 ounces. Comex Gold stocks are at their highest levels in the past 10 sessions. The bulls appear to have a minimal edge to start today but we aren't exactly sure if the bull camp has isolated its primary focus. A portion of the trade needs to see positive economic data to push gold up off physical commodity fundamentals, while another portion of the bull camp wants sharply higher oil prices to pull up gold prices. With February gold to the overnight highs, sitting as much as $104 an ounce above last week's lows, traders should fear an overbought status in the event that US payrolls fail to come in on the "strong side" of the equation. At least into the numbers, we suspect that the bull camp will maintain an edge and we suspect that even in the face of "as expected" readings this morning gold might be able to claw out more minor gains. Longs should stay long for the numbers, but they might consider banking profits and waiting for a setback next week to $1,595 before re-enter the long side.