Wednesday, 29 February 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Gold opened higher at 1780.25/1781.25. Tracking equities, gold reached an intraday low of 1776/1777 just after the P.M. fix. A rally in equities coupled with declines in the dollar saw gold recover to eventually reach an intraday high of 1790.50/1791.50 mid day. Light profit taking then took the metal to its close at 1786.50/1787.50.
Ø Stronger base metals overnight saw silver open higher at 36.13/36.18. Tracking equities initial decline on their open, silver reached an intraday low of 35.93/35.98. Strong consumer confidence levels however, reversed these declines taking silver to its intraday high of 37.20/37.25 late in the session. The metal closed the day soon after at 37.12/37.17
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold closed higher at 1786/87 today. There is support at 1749 from last Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1800 from the original uptrend, which was breached to the downside on Feb 10th and is now acting as resistance. RSI is trading higher, confirming the uptrend.
Ø Silver had a huge up-day today, closing at 37.12/17. Having definitively cleared the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to December downtrend at 35.16, there is a new Fibonacci level that comes into play. The 61.8% Fibonacci level comes in at 37.30 and should provide some resistance. The next target is 39.78, the September 2011 high. RSI has moved deeper into overbought territory at 78.46 but continues to confirm the uptrend. Note that RSI extended to 88.90 at its peak in April 2011 before silver collapsed. The Gold-Silver ratio collapsed, closing at 48.2, its 4th consecutive down-day. The target on this move is 44.82, the September 22nd low, for a full retracement of the 44.82 o 60.43 up-move.
Technical levels for 28th Feb, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,770.80
1,794.31
Silver
35.797
37.735
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
29th Feb
Prelim GDP q/q
USD
Pending at 7:00pm
2.8%
2.8%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
28th Feb
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD
-3.2%
0.0%
2.2%
As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items has Decreased.
28th Feb
CB Consumer Confidence
USD
70.8
63.1
61.1
As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed households has Increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

Tuesday, 28 February 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Gold opened on its intraday low of 1767.25/1768.25. The metal gathered strength, as equities gained from better than expected housing data, eventually reaching its intraday high of 1779/1780 mid morning. Sideways trading for the remainder of the session took the metal to its close at 1773/1774.
Ø opened almost unchanged at 35.28/35.33. Slipping lower as crude declined, silver reached an intraday low of 35.17/35.22 early morning. Silver quickly recovered however, alongside strong gains in base metals, to reach an intraday high of 35.61/35.66 mid session. The metal closed the day at 35.51/35.56.
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold closed slightly down today at 1773/74. Uptrend support comes in around 1742, and there is also support from last Wednesday’s low at 1749. Resistance is at 1795, from our original uptrend line which was breached to the downside on Feb 10th and is now acting as resistance.
Ø Silver closed almost unchanged at 35.51/56, which is essentially a doji on the candlestick charts. Support is at 35.16, the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. The next resistance is at 35.68, the October high. Since Thursday’s big drop in the Gold-Silver ratio, it has had 2 more successive down days, and is now trading sub 50’s at
Technical levels for 28th Feb, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,758.80
1,779.65
Silver
35.067
35.775
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
28th Feb
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD
Pending at 7:00pm
0.0%
2.2%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.
28th Feb
CB Consumer Confidence
USD
Pending at 8:30pm
63.1
61.1
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
27th Feb
Pending Home Sales m/m
USD
2.0%
1.1%
-3.5%
As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction has Increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

Friday, 24 February 2012

Market Commentary



Ø Greater optimism over the Greek crisis had gold open higher at 1778.25/1779.25. An initial spurt upwards on good jobs data was erased as equities opened lower. Gold reached an intraday low of 1772.50/1773.50 early morning but quickly reversed its slide as equities rallied back higher and the dollar declined. Eventually reaching its intraday high of 1787.50/1788.50 late in the session, the metal then closed the day at 1784.25/1785.25.
Ø Silver opened higher at 34.63/34.68 and quickly dipped to its intraday low of 34.55/34.60. Tracking crude, silver shrugged off the dip and steadily gained throughout the session to close on its intraday high of 35.56/35.61.
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold continued its rise today, closing higher at 1785 right around our initial resistance level. This is the 4th up-day for gold and we believe that once it clears 1785 on a more substantive basis, this level will start to act as support. There is support below from our fan line, currently at 1758. The next target is 1803, the November high.
Ø Silver had a big up-day today after its relative underperformance yesterday, closing higher at 35.61. Silver has finally broken out of its sideways range, the RSI is confirming (although has moved into overbought at 72.00) and the MACD has generated a buy signal. We have also cleared the previous resistance at 35.16, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to December downtrend and this level should now start to act as support. There is key support around 33.60 from the trendline off the December low. We are bullish so long as we remain above the trendline. The next target is 35.68, the October high. The Gold-Silver ratio closed sharply down at 50.22, breaching support levels in the 51.00 area. The risk is a move to the October low in the 48.80 area.
Technical levels for 24th Feb, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,774.26
1,789.65
Silver
34.619
36.007
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
24th Feb
New Home Sales
USD
Pending at 8:30pm
316
307
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.
23th Feb
Unemployment Claims
USD
351
352
348
As Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week has Decreased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.