Friday, 24 February 2012

Market Commentary



Ø Greater optimism over the Greek crisis had gold open higher at 1778.25/1779.25. An initial spurt upwards on good jobs data was erased as equities opened lower. Gold reached an intraday low of 1772.50/1773.50 early morning but quickly reversed its slide as equities rallied back higher and the dollar declined. Eventually reaching its intraday high of 1787.50/1788.50 late in the session, the metal then closed the day at 1784.25/1785.25.
Ø Silver opened higher at 34.63/34.68 and quickly dipped to its intraday low of 34.55/34.60. Tracking crude, silver shrugged off the dip and steadily gained throughout the session to close on its intraday high of 35.56/35.61.
Technical Commentary:
Ø Gold continued its rise today, closing higher at 1785 right around our initial resistance level. This is the 4th up-day for gold and we believe that once it clears 1785 on a more substantive basis, this level will start to act as support. There is support below from our fan line, currently at 1758. The next target is 1803, the November high.
Ø Silver had a big up-day today after its relative underperformance yesterday, closing higher at 35.61. Silver has finally broken out of its sideways range, the RSI is confirming (although has moved into overbought at 72.00) and the MACD has generated a buy signal. We have also cleared the previous resistance at 35.16, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to December downtrend and this level should now start to act as support. There is key support around 33.60 from the trendline off the December low. We are bullish so long as we remain above the trendline. The next target is 35.68, the October high. The Gold-Silver ratio closed sharply down at 50.22, breaching support levels in the 51.00 area. The risk is a move to the October low in the 48.80 area.
Technical levels for 24th Feb, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,774.26
1,789.65
Silver
34.619
36.007
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
24th Feb
New Home Sales
USD
Pending at 8:30pm
316
307
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.
23th Feb
Unemployment Claims
USD
351
352
348
As Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week has Decreased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

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