Thursday, 2 February 2012

Market Commentary


Ø With investors willing to take on more risk after positive global manufacturing data overnight, gold opened higher at 1745.75/1746.75. It was however, a quiet range bound session with the metal reaching an intraday low of 1739.25/1740.25 mid morning and an intraday high of 1750/1751 mid day. As investors await the out come of this week’s job numbers, gold quietly closed the day almost unchanged at 1745.25/1746.25.
Ø Higher base metals and crude prices overnight saw silver open higher at 33.82/33.87. Dipping to an intraday low of 33.53/33.58, silver then quickly recovered on positive U.S. manufacturing data to eventually reach an intraday high of 33.98/34.03mid morning. Silver closed the session in quiet range bound trading afterwards at 33.77/33.82.
Technical Commentary:
Ø Spot gold closed higher today at 1745/46. RSI remains at overbought levels, currently at 71.26; however, has not yet reached extreme overbought levels and thus it is too early to call a pullback. Resistance is at 1756, the December 8th high, followed by 1800. Key support sits at 1696, the 61.8% retracement of the November-December downtrend.
Ø Silver also closed higher, at 33.77/82. For the past 5 trading sessions, silver has been trading sideways in a range between 33.00 and 34.00. The resistance level at 34.00 represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend. The next resistance is at 34.63, the November 16th high. The Gold-Silver ratio continues to trade sideways, closing at 51.6.
Technical levels for 2nd Feb, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,735.28
1,754.70
Silver
33.227
34.239
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
2nd Feb
Unemployment Claims
USD
Pending at 7:00pm
373
377
If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
1st Feb
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD
170
189
325
As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government has Decreased.
1st Feb
ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD
54.1
54.6
53.9
As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry has Decreased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

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