Friday, 30 March 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Gold opened unchanged at 1657.25/1658.25. Gradually rising on light buying after neutral jobs data, the metal reached an intraday high of 1663.50/1664.50 early morning. Quick profit taking after equities opened sharply lower and continued downward, took gold to its intraday low of 1645/1646 mid session. Struggling to regain lost ground as equities stabilized, the metal eventually ended the session at 1652.75/1653.75.
Ø Silver opened slightly higher at 31.89/31.94. An early morning gain to 32.08/32.13 was quickly erased as crude and then base metals turned sharply lower. Silver eventually reached an intraday low of 31.63/31.68 mid morning at which point base metals began to recover bringing renewed buying interest in silver. The metal eventually ended the session at 31.97/32.02.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold closed lower today at 1653, the 3rd consecutive down session and close to our 1656 support level (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December to February uptrend). On the candlestick charts, we have the setup for a rising three methods, which is a tall white (up) candlefollowed by three small black real bodies within the range of the white candle. Confirmation would come from a tall white candle tomorrow which closes above 1690, which would be bullish. For now, the posture remains neutral with support at 1628, the last low.
Ø Silver formed a doji in the candlestick charts, closing close to unchanged at 32.02. A doji is a warning of a trend change, though not necessarily a reversal. Support is at 31.81, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December to February uptrend, followed by the last low around 31.11. Resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 33.15. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading lower today at 51.64. The target remains52.97, the 50% retracement level of the drop from December to February.
Technical levels for 30th Mar, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,640.75
1,679.70
Silver
31.594
33.732
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
30th Mar
Chicago PMI
USD
Pending at 9:45am
63.2
64.0
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area.
30th Mar
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD
Pending at
9:55am

74.9
74.3
If
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
29th Mar
Unemployment Claims
USD
359
351
348
As Actual > Forecast =Not Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week has Increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.
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