Tuesday, 3 April 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Commodities rallied from positive manufacturing data from both the US and China. Gold opened on its intraday low of 1665/1666. Continuing to gain from strong buying, gold eventually reached an intraday high of1683.50/1684.50 mid session. Light profit taking then took the metal to its close at 1678/1679.
Ø Silver opened small lower at 32.41/32.46 and dipped quickly to an intraday low of 32.38/32.43. The metal gained throughout the morningalongside strong rallies in base metals and crude, to eventually reach an intraday high of 33.23/33.28 mid day. Light late session profit taking took silver to its close of 33.08/33.13.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold traded up through resistance today on an intraday basis, but was unable to hold significantly above the downtrend line off the Februaryhigh, which came in around 1677 today. Gold closed near unchanged on the day at 1678. The next resistance is at last week’s high around 1697, followed by the March 12th high at 1716 which we see as a pivot. A break above 1716 would be bullish; failing that, gold remains in asideways trend with support at 1628 (the March 22 low).
Ø Silver had a big day today, closing at 33.08 and triggering a buy signal in MACD. Nevertheless, we have failed to clear resistance at 33.15 on a closing basis and we would prefer to see a clear break above this level to confirm we are out of the sideways trend in silver. A break above the March 12th high of 34.41 would be pivotal and would bring in more buyers. Support is at 31.11, the low from March 22. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading lower at 50.77. Support is at 49.85, where the ratio broke out of its two-month bear channel on March 14th.
Technical levels for 3rd April, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,667.45
1,687.88
Silver
32.552
33.537
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
3rd
April
Factory Orders m/m
USD
Pending at 10:00am
1.5%
-1.0%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.
2nd April
ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD
53.4
53.3
52.4
As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry has increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.
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