Market Commentary

Ø Gold eased overnight, commencing at 1671.00/1672.00, before sliding after CPI numbers showed US inflation generally cooled in line with expectations. Range trading for the rest of the session until selling interest near the end of the day took the metal to a low of 1654.00/1655.00 before concluding the week at 1658.50/1659.50.

Ø Silver slipped overnight, opening at 32.23/32.28, before drifting lower as base metals slumped in response to slightly weaker GDP data in China. Selling interest intensified as the dollar firmed, eventually taking us to an intraday low of 31.29/31.34. A small bounce at the end of our day took us to a close of 31.37/31.42.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold erased all of yesterday’s gains today, closing at 1658, and forming a bearish engulfing pattern in the candlestick charts. This is a short-term trend reversal warning. However, gold still closed slightly higher on the week, and is respecting the long-term uptrend with support at 1600. Resistance on the weekly chart is at last week’s high of 1683.

Ø Silver closed down at 31.42, the 6th lower close in 7 weeks (the only week that did not close down was a doji). The daily candlesticks have been moving sideways for the past 8 sessions. The next resistance is 33.28, the high from April 3rd, and there is strong support around 31.00. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading higher at 52.60. Support from the uptrend is around 51.09.

Technical levels for 16th April, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1,642.20	1,671.09
Silver	30.991	32.228

Economic Calendar:

Date			Economic Indicator	Country	Actual		Forecast		Previous	Effect & Remarks
	16th April	TIC Long-Term Purchases		USD	Pending at 6:30pm	40.7B		101.0B		If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period.
	16th April	FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks		USD	Pending at 10:00pm	NA		NA		Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
	13th April	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks		USD		NA		NA		The conference organizers for the opportunity to offer a few remarks on the causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis as well as on the Federal Reserve's policy response.
	13th April	Core CPI m/m		USD	0.2%	0.2%		0.1%		As Actual = Forecast =Not impact for currency. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

Disclaimer:

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