Thursday, 19 April 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Gold opened lower at 1641.25/1642.25 after overnight gains in the dollar with it continuing to drift lower, reaching an intraday low of 1637.25/1638.25 early morning. Reversing this slide as the EUR advanced the metal reached an intraday high of 1648.25/1649.25 mid day. However, declining equities, on poor earnings data, tempered gold’s gain and profit taking slowly took the metal to its close at 1638.75/1639.75.
Ø Silver opened lower at 31.58/31.63, gaining slightly to its intraday high of 31.65/31.70 mid morning. Pressured by strong declines in base metals and crude, silver began to slowly retract eventually reaching an intraday low of 31.34/31.39 late in the session. The metal ended the day shortly after at 31.49/31.54.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold closed lower again today, for the 4th session in a row, closing at 1639. Support is at 1625, followed by 1612, the low from April 4th. There is resistance from the top of the bear channel at 1673. We remain bearish gold so long as it trades below 1680, the last high.
Ø Silver also closed lower at 31.49, trading sideways for the past 10 sessions. Support is at 31.00 and resistance is at 32.57, the high from April 12th. The Gold-Silver ratio is unchanged at 52.09. Trendline support is at 51.45 and resistance at 52.97.
Technical levels for 19th April, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,632.14
1,651.49
Silver
31.294
32.124
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
19th April
Unemployment Claims
USD
Pending at 6:00pm
370K
380K
If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
19TH April
Existing Home Sales
USD
Pending at 7:30pm
4.62M
4.59M
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.
18th April
Crude Oil Inventories
USD
3.9M
1.6M
2.8M
As Actual > Forecast = No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications. Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.
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