Thursday, 26 April 2012

Market Commentary



Ø Gold opened unchanged at 1642.25/1643.25 in anticipation of the FOMC meeting. Gaining slightly to an intraday high of 1644.50/1645.50, the metal relaxed until release of the FOMC comments and rate decision. With rates remaining unchanged and comments indicating a refrain from additional stimulus, gold quickly began to sell off eventually reaching an intraday low of 1624.25/1625.25 mid day. As quickly as it dropped, gold recovered on renewed buying, closing the session almost unchanged at 1641/1642.
Ø Silver opened a little higher at 30.86/30.91. Reaching its intraday high of 30.97/31.02 early morning, silver then began to slowly decline and then rapidly sold off to an intraday low of 29.94/29.99 after the comments. Like gold, a late session rally took the metal to its close at 30.39/30.44.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold is showing unchanged today at 1642. The metal is stuck within our April range of 1613 to 1683. Only a move out side of these parameters will inspire a bigger directional play. The 3.5 year trend line support is seen at 1627 on the weekly chart. A close below this level on Friday will bring in liquidation selling of stale Long Gold positions.
Ø Silver probed to fresh multi month lows to 30.00 before recovering to current 30.63. We are bearish Silver following the break of huge support pivot 31.00. Our target for Silver is 28.86, the 76.4% retracement of the 26.20 to 37.46 up move. The Gold Silver ratio spiked higher to 54.20 before retracing to current 53.63. The ratio is bid with potential for 100% retracement to 57.50.
Technical levels for 26th April, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1 ,629.32
1 ,655.51
Silver
30.023
31.173
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
26th April
Unemployment Claims
US
Pending at 6:00pm
374K
386K
If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
26th April
Pending Home Sales m/m
US
Pending at 7:30pm
1.2%
-0.5%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.
25th April
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
US
-1.1%
0.6%
1.8%
As Actual > Forecast = Good for US Currency. Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.
25th April
FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Press Conference
US
Na
Na
Bernanke says Fed prepared to do more for economy but for more hawkish. Additional balance sheet excel could be taken if required.
This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.
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