Wednesday, 4 April 2012

precious metals flash

It was the calm before the storm yesterday, where the only highlight in Europe was at 10 am New York time, when Gold, Silver, Palladium or Crude Oil were suddenly dumped to the day’s low, together with stocks and the Euro, as if someone had just consulted his crystal ball and knew what would come later in the day. “FOMC SAW NO NEED TO EASE ANEW UNLESS GROWTH SLOWS, MINUTES SHOW” was the headline that hit Bloomberg terminals and let markets tumble. 4.5 Mio. ounces of Comex volumes later, Gold had fallen to the day’s low of 1640.20 on the June future. The S&P was 1% lower from the high of the day and Oil 1.5%. Silver actually surprised in that sense, that it lost same as Gold, not much more, as you might expect and which could be attributed to the fact that this year’s Silver positioning by speculators is much lower than last year. 1640 held like a rock for Gold, which is that long term trend line on the weekly chart going back to 2008. This will also be the crucial level to watch today. The USD index was the big winner and is flirting with the resistance at the 100 day moving average now. The drop in Gold didn’t do good to the psychology of the bulls, who might stand on the sidelines now, while the bears could try an attempt at the 1640 level again, where a break might call for 1600 as a next interim target. Trying to buy ahead of 1640 however makes sense, combined with a tight stop below, as supports are rather to be bought than sold.

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