gold_silver_market: May 2012

Wednesday, 30 May 2012

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP 5/29/2012

June Gold closed down 13 at 1555.9. This was 10.2 up from the low and 27.6 off the high.

July Silver finished down 0.595 at 27.791, 0.874 off the high and 0.081 up from the low.

The gold market forged a rather wide trade range today in the face of some back and forth shifts in US economic data. It did seem as if the Euro also reversed course in the wake of the US home price survey, consumer confidence
And Dallas Fed manufacturing figures as those figures came in weak. Therefore gold saw some currency related pressure and it probably saw some pressure off the shift toward weaker data. Some players suggested that renewed anxiety toward Spanish and Italian debt was responsible for the reversal in prices today but surprisingly that line of thinking wasn't initially embraced in the US equity markets.

The silver market also forged a rather wide trading range today, with prices falling back below the prior session low well ahead of mid session. A softening of US data and adverse currency market action seemed to yank the rug out from under the silver market, which clearly underperformed relative to platinum and copper prices. Perhaps some silver bulls were growing frustrated with the ebb and flow of Chinese easing talk, while others were simply concerned about Euro zone affairs remaining in such a vulnerable status.

silver & gold

COMEX SILVER (JUL) 0/30/2012: The next upside target is 2904.0. The next area of resistance is around 2832.0 and 2904.0, while 1st support hits today at 2738.0 and below there at 2705.0.

COMEX GOLD (JUN) 05/30/2012: The next upside target is 1597.5. The next area of resistance is around 1574.4 and 1597.5, while 1st support hits today at 1537.5 and below there at 1522.9.

JUN GOLD

Resist: 1559.00-1568.20
Supprt: 1532.50-1525.80
1* Note that yesterday's outside bear day favors declines into the next 1-3 days. Corrections inside the outside range should stay under 1569.00 to promote follow-through action. A reluctance to trade under 1545.50 or a close over 1569.00 by the second day increases the chance for full reversal of the outside day.

2* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 1579.30-1555.50, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

JUL SILVER

Resist: 2810.00-2835.00
Supprt: 2729.00-2715.00
1* Note that yesterday's outside bear day favors declines into the next 1-3 days. Corrections inside the outside range should stay under 2835.00 to promote follow-through action. A reluctance to trade under 2770.00 or a close over 2835.00 by the second day increases the chance for full reversal of the outside day.

2* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 2877.00-2784.00, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

Tuesday, 29 May 2012

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP 5/25/2012

June Gold closed up 14.5 at 1572. This was 21.3 up from the low and 1.7 off the high.
July Silver finished up 0.229 at 28.386, 0.089 off the high and 0.406 up from the low.
In retrospect the gold market saw a two sided trade this week as the initial pressure in prices was reversed off what appeared to be a focus shift by the gold trade. Initially fear of global recession as a result of ongoing Euro zone problems was pressure gold and physical commodities but at mid week the trade seemed to take a view that an exodus of Greece from the EU might be the quickest way to end the Euro zone debt contagion problem. Other traders simply think the prospect of coordinated global easing is on the rise and that probably prompted some bargain hunting buying around this week's lows. It is also possible that favorable US data from the middle of this week through Friday morning sparked a general improvement in macro economic sentiment and that served to lift gold prices.

The silver market forged a $1.77 ounce range this week and that was the result of a 180 degree shift in economic sentiment in the US and it was also the result of a shift in thinking toward the Greek situation. While the markets haven't definitively accepted the idea that an orderly Greek exit might be the shortest path to a resolution of the Euro zone crisis, that line of thinking has allowed for a moderate improvement in sentiment and that thinking might also be a tool to increase the pressure on the Greeks into their upcoming elections. More than likely silver was also drafting some support off ideas that coordinated intervention to support the global economy might be seen into the very tumultuous period leading up to the Greek elections.

COMEX SILVER (MAY) 05. 29. 2012:

The next upside target is 2900.0. The next area of resistance is around 2876.0 and 2900.0, while 1st support hits today at 2816.0 and below there at 2767.0.

COMEX GOLD (APR) 05. 29. 2012:

The near-term upside target is at 1590.0. The next area of resistance is around 1583.0 and 1590.0, while 1st support hits today at 1560.9 and below there at 1544.6.

GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ MARKET PRICE / 1568 , Stop at 1563 with 1584 & 1597 as next target.

The downside breakout of 1563 will open the way to 1558 & 1552.

SILVER‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ 28.47 / 28.32 , Stop at 28.22 with 28.78 & 29.08 as next targets.

The downside breakout of 28.22 will call for 27.92 & 27.62

PRECIOUS METALS FLASH

Gold continued to squeeze out shorts yesterday and traded to a high of 1584.20, as the general risk mood improved, after Greek polls showed that sentiment was shifting towards pro-austerity parties. Spanish debt worries on the other hand capped finally the market, when the government announced to bail out Bankia SA with the impressive sum of 19 Billion Euros, rising concerns that further large funds would have to be put up for the banking sector. Interesting to note is that the risk in the Eurozone seems to affect less other areas of the globe lately, which could bode well for commodities too. 1600 USD seems on the cards for Gold as the next major target to break, where further buy stops are expected to kick in. Support is expected at the 1570 level and only a move below 1550 should attract the focus of the bears again.

Friday, 25 May 2012

Market Commentary

Ø Rallying equity markets overnight saw gold open higher at 1566/1567. The metal reached an intraday high of 1577.50/1578.50 after neutral jobs data. Profit taking took gold lower throughout the day with the metal closing the session on its intraday low of 1557.50/1558.50.

Ø Stronger base metals and crude overnight saw silver open strong at 28.14/28.19 but slipping to its intraday low of 28.00/28.05 quickly after. Silver pared its early morning loss and eventually reached an intraday high of 28.53/28.58 early morning. As with gold, profit taking, as equities began to decline, took the metal to its close at 28.17/28.22.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed lower at 1557 today, unable to hold onto its highs from yesterday or today. Gold remains under the bear channel and thus the bias is for further downside; however, the trading action for the past 9 sessions has essentially been sideways. Support is at the previous low of 1522, and resistance is at the last correction high of 1599.

Ø Silver closed higher today at 28.22, in the middle of the bear channel. Resistance is at the top of the channel, currently at 29.54 and support is at the bottom of the channel at 26.47. While we may see a small correction higher in the near term, the trend remains bearish. The Gold-Silver ratio formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the candlestick charts. While this may be the setup for a short-term correction downward, the uptrend remains intact. Support from the uptrend is at 54.18 and resistance is at the recent high of 57.11. It is currently trading lower at 55.24.

Technical levels for 25^th May, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1 ,544.34	1 ,571.26
Silver	27.694	28.582

Economic Calendar:

Date			Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous		Effect & Remarks
	25^th May	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment		US	Pending at 6:00pm	77.7		77.8	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
	24^th May	Unemployment Claims		US	370K	372K		370K	As Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week has Decreased.
	24^th May	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks		US	NA	NA		NA	Monetary policy in today’s challenging economic environment. As part of this, he will discuss how simple policy rules might appropriately be used as a guide to decision making. Fed’s Dudley Says Labor Market Slowdown Would Tilt To Easing.

Disclaimer: -

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.

daily technincal overview (gold) & (silver)

JUN GOLD

Resist: 1567.30-1586.50
Supprt: 1540.90-1533.90
1* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 1588.10-1564.10, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

JUL SILVER

Resist: 2848.00-2912.00
Supprt: 2769.00-2757.00
1* Market is challenging a previous daily swing high and may attempt a breakout. Closing beyond 2890.00 calls for continuation rallies. A failure around 2890.00 cautions for a reactionary setback.

2* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 2912.00-2820.00, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

5/24/2012

June Gold closed up 11.7 at 1560.1. This was 9.1 up from the low and 17.6 off the high.

July Silver finished up 0.638 at 28.157, 0.358 off the high and 0.177 up from the low.
June gold spent a large amount of time today trading above the prior session's close and for some that was surprising. However, at least a temporary calm toward the Euro zone and slightly better than expected US scheduled data seemed to pull the marketplace back from a fairly conclusive deflationary posture. It is also likely that a recovery attempt in the Euro provided some fresh buying in gold today, but others might have been pulled into the fray because of option settlement influences. It is also possible that the theme of an orderly exit of Greece from the Euro zone was giving the bull camp in gold a glimpse of better macro economic conditions ahead.

Like the gold market, the silver market forged a fairly impressive range up extension today and managed that action in the wake of some rather discouraging global economic news flow from the overnight action. However, US scheduled data was better than expected and that might have prompted classic physical commodity buying of silver today and that in might also have fostered a shift to a more favorable currency market influence on metals prices. Another portion of the bull camp in silver is probably of a mind that weak international data is likely to bring UK and EU easing sooner rather than later.

COMEX SILVER (JUL) 05/25/2012: The near-term upside target is at 2905.0. Daily studies suggest buying dips today. The next area of resistance is around 2870.0 and 2905.0, while 1st support hits today at 2786.0 and below there at 2728.0.

COMEX GOLD (JUN) 05/25/2012: The next upside objective is 1588.5. The next area of resistance is around 1573.0 and 1588.5, while 1st support hits today at 1547.5 and below there at 1535.9.

Thursday, 24 May 2012

gold

Gold may be out of favor currently but strong buying by
central banks and emerging-market investors will underpin the metal's fortunes
going forward, says Coutts analyst Henry Lancaster. China is the most notable
area for new investment, he notes, with record first quarter retail gold
purchases in China of 255 metric tons. "Yet, Chinese ownership of gold per
capita still has a long way to rise to catch up to levels in developed
economies," he adds. Spot gold trades at $1,558.20 a troy ounce, +0.2% from
Wednesdays close but down 13% since its 2012 high in February.

Precious metals flash

Precious metals traded sideways during most of European hours, until U.S. markets opened up and started to sell risk, while pushing the USD Index to the highest level since September 2010. Gold saw heavy volumes trade once falling below 1550, where 4.1 Mio. ounces exchanged hands in the next 30 minutes. Asian buying was reported on the lows and various of our physical contacts confirmed increased physical demand for kilo and 100 gram bars in the last couple of weeks, which are finding their way to the Asian and Indian market. Global ETF flows were mixed, while our day saw selling on JB Gold funds, the SPDR GLD was up by 87’000 ounces or 2.7 tons and ETF Securities was up by 34’000 ounces or little more than one ton. EU leaders got together and Eurobonds, as well as the Greek situation were discussed, without significant news hitting the headlines. US stock markets recovered in the last hour of trading, which helped risk. During Asian hours Junker commented that Eurobonds would not be seen anytime soon and the HSBC China PMI showed further contraction, which put some pressure on markets again. Today is option expiry on Comex and the largest near strikes are 1500, 1550 and 1600. The markets should remain headline driven and any move towards the strong support of 1525 in Gold should see nervousness increase, while a move higher could see implied volatilities come off again. How nervous option traders are, shows the fact that the 1 month moved from 16.75 to 19.5, back to 16.5 and again to 19.5 % in the last couple of days.

SILVER‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ 27.69 / 27.20 , Stop at 27.07 with 27.97 & 28.38 as next targets.

The downside breakout of 27.07 will call for 26.82 & 26.03

GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday:

BUY @ 1554 / 1543 , Stop at 1532 with 1572 & 1584 as next target.

The downside breakout of 1532 will open the way to 1528 & 1506.

gold

Gold presents good value to investors at current
levels below $1,600 a troy ounce, according to Henry Lancaster, senior
investment analyst at Coutts. In a report, Lancaster notes that gold has
recently been out of favor as a safe haven, but says that the yellow metal
remains attractive as a longer-term investment. "We believe that fundamentals
point to a positive outlook for gold," he says in a report, citing sustained
central bank buying and rising Chinese demand as supportive factors. "On top of
gold's many advantages as a hedge against global crises and devaluation of
major currencies, we see strong buying by central banks and emerging-market
investors...as underpinning a shiny outlook for gold," he says. Spot gold is
trading at $1,559.40 a troy ounce, down $2.90 from its previous settlement and
2.1% lower than Monday's open; prices have fallen this week alongside
traditional risk assets like industrial commodities and equities amid
escalating concerns over a possible Greek exit from the euro zone.

Market Commentary

Ø Weakness in the overnight markets of all assets saw gold open lower at 1561/1562 as investors continue to look to the dollar for safety. The metal managed a small bounce to its intraday high of 1564.25/1565.25 but was unsustainable due to the strength of the dollar. Beginning to slide lower as equities declined, the metal eventually reached an intraday low of 1533.25/1534.25 midday. After the elimination of the insecure long positions, renewed buying interest then took gold to its close at 1548/1549

Ø Silver opened very weak at 27.67/27.72. Like gold, silver had its moment higher, reaching its intraday high of 27.88/27.93 early morning. Silver fell alongside the drop in commodities to its intraday low of 27.10/27.15 midmorning. A late afternoon rally brought the metal to its close at 27.53/27.58.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed down sharply again today at 1548, closing back under the bear channel support line. This should now provide resistance at 1572, and gold is free to target its previous low from December of 1522. A new low below 1522 will open up 1478, the July 2011 low.

Ø Silver also closed lower at 27.58, trading within its bear channel currently defined by 26.57 supports and 29.64 resistances. A close below the last low of 26.79 will bring in more sellers. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 56.23; the next big target is a full retracement to the 58.26 highs.

Technical levels for 24^th May, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1 ,531.76	1 ,592.48
Silver	27.001	28.666

Economic Calendar:

Date			Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous		Effect & Remarks
	24^th May	Unemployment Claims		US	Pending at 6:00pm	372K		370K	If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
	24^th May	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks		US	Pending at 8:00pm	NA		NA	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
	23^rd May	New Home Sales		US	343K	335K		328K	As Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month has Increased.

Disclaimer: -

daily technincal overview (gold) & (silver)

JUN GOLD
Resist: 1556.50-1564.00
Supprt: 1530.20-1504.90
1* Market is showing a marked acceleration in the trend. However, be on guard for a correction today against the trend to consolidate the loss. Trend should remain intact barring a close above 1558.20 or full retracement of yesterday's range at 1568.50.
2* The downside objectives for this formation range from 1523.70 to 1454.80 with a close over 1573.80 needed to negate a bear trading stance.
3* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 1579.10-1555.20, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

JUL SILVER
Resist: 2780.00-2800.00
Supprt: 2696.00-2645.00
1* The downside objectives for this formation range from 2619.00 to 2459.00 with a close over 2821.00 needed to negate a bear trading stance.
2* Market is within proximity of this week's projected resistance range of 2850.00-2758.00, which may provide a likely zone for topping action or setbacks.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP 5/23/2012

June Gold closed down 15.5 at 1561.1. This was 28.3 up from the low and 7.4 off the high.

July Silver finished down 0.66 at 27.519, 0.351 off the high and 0.439 up from the low.

The gold market managed to overcome early pressure as prices managed to recover a large portion of early losses by the close. Strength in the dollar and weakness in the Euro might have pressured gold and other physical commodity markets today, as concern toward the Euro zone situation generally remained in place in spite of today's EU summit meeting. Some traders suggest that the EU needs to produce something significant in order to restore confidence, with other traders waiting to see proof of credible action before putting a positive spin on the European debt crisis. In the end, the significant run up in Treasury prices seems to be signaling some type of major financial problems ahead.

The silver market was also able to make a substantial recovery from heavy early losses by the close. Escalating Euro zone concerns and adverse currency market action also served to pressure silver prices this morning, but it could take concerted central bank action now to effectively turn the tide in silver and other physical commodity markets. In retrospect, softer than expected US new home sales readings appeared to rekindle a broad based physical commodity market liquidation wave and kept prices on the defensive throughout the session.

COMEX SILVER (JUL) 05/24/2012: The near-term upside target is at 2873.0. The next area of resistance is around 2830.0 and 2873.0, while 1st support hits today at 2729.0 and below there at 2667.0.

COMEX GOLD (JUN) 05/24/2012: The near-term upside target is at 1590.8. The next area of resistance is around 1578.0 and 1590.8, while 1st support hits today at 1543.6 and below there at 1520.7.

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

ScotiaMocatta official sees India gold imports dn 20-25% in 2012 .

--ScotiaMocatta official says India Jan-Apr gold imports "marginal"

MUMBAI - India's gold imports are seen down 20-25% in 2012 due to subdued
demand for the precious metal, said Rajan Venkatesh, managing director-India
bullion, ScotiaMocatta, one of the largest gold importers in the country.
In 2011, India imported 969 tn of gold, according to the World Gold Council.
The council has estimated India's gold demand in Jan-Mar at 207.6 tn,
down 29% on year.
Venkatesh declined to comment on how much imports had fallen in Jan-Apr
but said the country's imports were "marginal".
After the government doubled import duty to 4% in the Budget for 2012-13
(Apr-Mar) in March, demand for gold has fallen significantly. Record high
prices have also dampened sentiment for the yellow metal.
But Venkatesh remains bullish on gold prices as he expects the global
economic crisis to push up safe haven buying in the next few months.
Venkatesh said gold is likely to touch $1,700 an ounce in the near term.
"It (gold price) is likely to go closer to $1,850-$1,900 (an ounce) by
the year-end," he said.
Today, spot gold on COMEX was around $1,560 an ounce.
The continued fall in rupee against the dollar will also keep domestic
gold prices at record high levels, as a weak rupee makes import of
dollar-denominated commodities such as gold more expensive.
Venkatesh is also bearish on the rupee and sees the Indian currency
slipping below 57.00 against the dollar. "Due to the huge (dollar) outflows
on account of oil imports, rupee is likely to breach 57," he said.
Today, the rupee hit an all-time low of 56.00 against the dollar.
In Mumbai, spot pure gold was around 29,100 rupees per 10 gm, near its
record high of 29,460 rupees hit earlier this month.

GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday:

SELL @ 1563 / 1574 , Stop at 1578 with 1553 & 1543 as next target.

The upside breakout of 1578 will open the way to 1584 & 1599.

SILVER‏ (Spot) intraday:

SELL @ 27.98 / 28.18 , Stop at 28.32 with 27.47 & 27.22 as next targets.

The upside breakout of 28.32 will call for 28.78 & 29.08

precious metals flash

The first sell off in risk came with the downgrading of Japan by two notches from Fitch and later in the day by critics on the Eurozone by Cina Investment Corporation as well as headlines from news agencies that previous Greek Prime Minister Papademos would have said Greece was preparing for leaving the Euro. In early Asian hours Papademos denied the allegations, but enough damage was done already. Gold had dropped to 1555, Silver to 27.75, Platinum to 1430 and Palladium found support only ahead of the psychological 600 USD level. Fundamentally bearish were comments by the All India Gems & Jewellery Federation. They expect Gold demand to remain sluggish until September due to the lower Rupee, as well as higher taxes and on the whole year to fall by 30%. This would be 280 tons less demand than in 2011, which corresponds to 10% of World Mine Supply of last year. ZKB reports ETF holdings dropped 82’000 ounces or 2.5 tons and we witnessed selling of about half the size yesterday afternoon on our own funds. There is Comex June option expiry tomorrow, with 1.1 Mio. ounces of open interest on the 1500 USD, as well as 1600 USD strike and 787’000 ounces on the 1550 strike. Where the next direction will lead is probably a coin flip. Fundamentals are rather bearish. 1555 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move higher from the low 1527 and a move below 1550 might see further sell stops. 1576 is probably the next toppish level and direction might have to be drawn from the USD, where the DXY is forming a double top at the year high right now and only a sharp correction lower might prevent Gold from sliding further.

Market Commentary

Ø Gold opened lower at 1580/1581, over gains in the dollar overnight and slipped to its intraday low of 1575.50/1576.50 quickly after. Reversing its losses as equities gained after positive housing data, gold reached its intraday high of 1590.25/1591.25 midmorning. Unable to hold as the EUR declined, gold gave up its gains and closed the day at 1576.50/1577.50.

Ø Suffering the effects of lower base metals and crude overnight, silver opened lower at 28.19/28.24 and quickly dipped to its intraday low of 28.11/28.16 soon after. A turn around in base metals, after housing data, brought back silver buying interest and the metal eventually reached an intraday high of 28.78/28.83 midmorning. As with other commodities, silver gave up its gains to close the day at 28.17/28.22.

Technical Commentary

Ø Gold closed lower today at 1576, around the bottom of our bear channel which comes in at 1574. Resistance is at 1599, close to yesterday’s high and also the 50% retracement of the April to May downtrend. Support is at 1526, the recent low.

Ø Silver closed slightly lower at 28.22, remaining in the middle of its well-entrenched bear channel defined by 26.67 supports and 29.74 resistance. Key support is at the recent low of 26.79 and resistance is at the recent high 28.91. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading lower at 55.65, but remains in a solid uptrend targeting 58.26.

Technical levels for 23^rd May, 2012:

Metal	Support ($/oz)	Resistance ($/oz)
Gold	1 ,550.44	1 ,591.25
Silver	27.451	28.723

Economic Calendar:

Date			Economic Indicator	Country	Actual	Forecast	Previous		Effect & Remarks
	23^rd May	New Home Sales		US	Pending at 7:30pm	335K		328K	If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.
	22^th May	Existing Home Sales		US	4.62M	4.62M		4.48M	As Actual = Forecast =No impact for currency. Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.
	22^th May	FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks		US	NA	NA		NA	Factory bookings for long-lasting goods rose 0.3 percent last month after falling 3.9 percent in March, according to the median forecasts of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a May 24 Commerce Department report.

Disclaimer: -