Thursday, 7 March 2013

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP


April Gold closed up 6.6 at 1581.5. This was 15.1 up from the low and 2.8 off the high.
The gold market waffled around both sides of unchanged today suggesting that the market continues to lack a definitive fundamental focus. Clearly gold continues to be negatively impacted by positive economic views and for some gold bulls that is discouraging. For the time being gold seems to be fearful of a decent US payroll report on Friday morning but at some point one might expect long liquidation off flight to quality to run its course. However, the Dollar remains very strong at the expense of the Euro and most other currencies and that might be giving some gold bears an added incentive to press prices downward.
May silver forged a rather wide trading range today but one might suggest that silver outperformed the gold market at times on the upside track. At times today silver seemed to be tracking with platinum and less with gold but in the end the industrial metals track was less than impressive today. While gold was at times undermined by positive US scheduled data flows and higher equities, the silver market seemed to become less concerned about that type of thinking as the session progressed. However, it could still be a little premature to think that silver is poised to benefit from positive US economic views.

Technical Outlook

COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/07/2013:The next upside objective is 2946.0. The next area of resistance is around 2922.0 and 2948.0, while 1st support hits today at 2872.0 and below there at 2834.0.

COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/07/2013: The next downside target is 1560.8. The next area of resistance is around 1589.0 and 1595.3, while 1st support hits today at 1572.4 and below there at 1560.8.

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

Market Commentary


Ø The gold market tried to track with physical commodities on the upside today but the trade was unable to sustain that track throughout the trading session. Sharp gains in US equities, favorable US scheduled data flows and a risk-on vibe failed to provide a lift to gold and that suggests the gold trade is still focused on safe haven or flight to quality issues. The bull camp has to be discouraged as the failure to see gold sustain early gains today has to be seen as a negative fundamental signal, especially since the reversal today made the charts in gold look a little suspect.
Ø The silver market showed somewhat impressive initial gains today but in the afternoon trade the May contract settled back to as much as 41 cents an ounce below the initial highs. For the bull camp the action today is really troublesome as that clearly suggests silver isn't currently in a position to benefit from classic physical commodity market developments. Given the potential deterioration in global economic conditions into the US sequester, the rise in uncertainty off the Italian election and the recent concern on the Chinese real estate bubble the flight to quality crowd seemed to have an edge but prices failed to respond. Now that economic conditions have improved and silver has also weakened one has to wonder what condition if any will provide support to silver prices.
Technical levels for 6th Mar, 2013:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1572.10
1584.67
Silver
28.503
29.003

Intraday Levels and view for Gold:
Sell positions @ $1583 with 1st target @1571 & 2nd target @1565 stop at 1587 the upside breakout of 1587 will open the way to 1599 & 1603.
Intraday Levels and view for Silver:
Sell positions @ $28.95 with 1st target @ 28.4 & 2nd target @ 28.2 stop at 29.05 the upside penetration of 29.05 will call for a rebound towards 29.45 & 29.65.
Economic Calendar
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
6th Mar
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
US
Pending at
6:45pm
172K
192K

If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government

5th Mar
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
US
56.0
55.0
55.2

As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry has increased.


Disclaimer:
This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.