Friday, 31 May 2013

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Hits 2-Week High On Safe-Haven Demand, Technical Buying


(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session solidly higher and hit a two-week high Thursday. The market was boosted on safe-haven demand and more short covering. As gold prices moved above the key $1,400.00 level Thursday there was also fresh technical buying that surfaced. The lower U.S. dollar index also supported the precious metals markets Thursday. Comex August gold last traded up $22.50 at $1,414.30 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $21.30 at $1,414.50.  July Comex silver last traded up $0.0277 at $22.73 an ounce.
Gold saw safe-have demand develop in overnight trading in Asia and Europe. Asian stock markets were sharply lower, with Japan’s Nikkei stock index down 5% Thursday and down nearly 15% in a week. The sell-off in the Asian stock markets prompted some fresh safe-haven demand for gold.

Thursday’s batch of U.S. economic data was generally weak, highlighted by the weekly jobless claims report that showed more claims than expected and the second-quarter gross domestic product reading that was just on the weak side. Pending U.S. home sales also did not meet expectations. The weaker U.S. data sunk the U.S. dollar index and caused gold prices to extend their overnight gains.
The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,413.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,382.50.
Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-week high Thursday. The gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls did gain a bit of upside momentum Thursday. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, good gains in the near term would begin to produce a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,450.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $1,372.80. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,417.70 and then at $1,425.00. First support is seen at $1,400.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $1,388.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
July silver futures prices closed near mid-range Thursday and were supported by short covering and a lower U.S. dollar index. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $23.29 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $23.06 and then at $23.29. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $22.31 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
July N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 330.75 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. A weaker U.S. dollar index was also supportive for copper today. Copper bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 341.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 322.40 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 334.55 cents and then at 337.50 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 325.70 cents and then at 322.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
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By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News;

Thursday, 16 May 2013

Market Commentary


Ø MEM METALS: June gold futures closed down $27.50 an ounce at $1,397.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-week low today. The key outside markets were again in a bearish posture for the gold market today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. The gold bears are in near-term technical control and gained some downside momentum with today's close below the key psychological level of $1,400.00.
Ø July silver futures closed down $0.699 an ounce at $22.68 today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh three-week low and closed at a fresh 31-month low close. The key outside markets were bearish for silver again today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Silver bears are in firm overall technical control. Prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Technical levels for 16th May, 2013:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,374.75
1,429.54
Silver
22.408
23.440

Intraday Levels and view for Gold:
Sell positions @ $1406 with 1st target @1485 & 2nd target @ 1365 stop at 1418. The upside penetration of 1418 will call for a rebound towards 1431 & 1449.
Intraday Levels and view for Silver:
Buy positions @ $22.59 with 1st target @ 23 & 2nd target @ 23.15 Stop at 22.45. The downside penetration of 22.45 will call for 22 & 21.8.
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
16th May
Unemployment Claims
US
Pending at 7:00pm
332K
323K

If Actual < Forecast = Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week

16th May
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
US
Pending at 8:30pm
2.5
1.3

If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia

15th May
PPI m/m
US
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.6%

As Actual < Forecast =Not Good for currency. Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers have decreased.