Friday, 13 April 2012

Market Commentary


Ø Gold eased overnight, opening the session at 1653.00/1654.00, before rising after a disappointing initial jobless claims number fueled speculation of additional stimulus measures. Sideways trade for most of the rest of the session until buying interest at the end of our day took us to an intraday high of 1680.00/1681.00 and a close of 1679.00/1680.00.
Ø Silver consolidated overnight, opening unchanged at 31.51/31.56, before climbing on dollar weakness. The metal moved in line with 0123 equities throughout the day, peaking at 32.57/32.62 just prior to concluding the session at 32.52/32.57.
Technical Commentary
Ø Gold made a strong move higher today, closing at 1679. We have now closed well above the short-term bear channel, reducing the odds of a false break. Resistance held at 1683, the high from April 2nd It should be noted that the 1680 level is also the 38.2% retracement of the Feb-March downtrend. The previous resistance level at 1656 should now provide some support. The next target is 1701, the 50% retracement level.
Ø Silver played catch-up with gold today, also closing higher at 32.52 after trading sideways for 5 sessions. Silver closed well through the short-term downtrend that had been in place since Feb. 29th. The next resistance is 33.28, the high from April 3rd, and there is strong support around 31.00. The Gold-Silver ratio is trading lower at 51.74. Support from the uptrend is around 51.09.
Technical levels for 13th April, 2012:
Metal
Support ($/oz)
Resistance ($/oz)
Gold
1,659.36
1,687.98
Silver
31.741
32.973
Economic Calendar:
Date
Economic Indicator
Country
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Effect & Remarks
13th April
FOMC Member Raskin Speaks
USD
Pending at 1:00am
If Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
13th April
Core CPI m/m
USD
Pending at 6:00pm
0.2%
0.1%
If Actual > Forecast = Good for currency. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.
12th April
Trade Balance
USD
-46.0B
-51.9B
-52.6B
As Actual > Forecast = Good for currency.
Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month has increased.
12th April
Unemployment Claims
USD
380K
355K
357K
As Actual > Forecast =Not Good for currency. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week has increased.

Disclaimer:

This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advices. The author, Directors, other employees of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on the information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of RSBL cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from RSBL that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purpose and are not to be construed as investment advices.
Ø

1 comment: