SILVER

A pattern of lower highs in silver this week haven't prevented the silver trade from carving out periodic price gains in the early Thursday US action. Silver also seems to have discounted news of higher/record silver production from a Canadian miner in their 1st quarter results. However, initial gains in silver, platinum and copper prices suggest that macro economic sentiment is somewhat positive today and that view is given added credence by initial gains in US equities. The bulls are probably relieved that Italian debt auctions haven't tripped up macro economic sentiment today, but it could take signs of improvement in US claims to provide additional buying interest in physical commodities like silver. As in gold, the silver market will see a number of Fed speeches today, but the recent company line from the Fed has been that they will ease if needed and they will tighten if it becomes apparent that the US economy is recovering faster than expected. In order to see silver and other physical commodities drift into a risk-on environment, probably requires positive economic readings and or positive corporate earnings news from the US. Comex Silver Stocks were 139.682 million ounces up 71,209 ounces. Silver stocks have increased 13 of the last 20 days. A pattern of lower highs on the charts would seem to suggest that traders just aren't confident in the current economic track and it would also seem to suggest that would-be buyers of silver are content to wait for prices to slide down to even cheaper levels. Not surprisingly, buyers of silver have little urgency in the face of a marginally positive macro economic outlook. Therefore, we can't rule out periodic weakness and a retest of lower support on the charts down at $31.39 and again down at $31.15. To throw off the down trend pattern in place since early March, might require a rise back above $32.81 today and that trend line resistance area falls to $32.65 by next Monday. The path of least resistance is down, unless scheduled data provides a fresh spark today.